Marin Realty Group

Are We Seeing the Start of Market Stabilization?

Lou — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 17:19:00 +0000

If you talk to anyone who understands the current real estate market you’ll be told that until the market “stabilizes” we will not begin to see any level of appreciation. Actually, until the market is stable we will continue to see eroding values/prices.

As an example, I often mention the “absorption rate” of our current inventory of Single Family houses. That rate is calculated by dividing our active listings by the last full month’s sales. Not the most accurate long-term information but great as a “snap-shot” of the market.

Currently there are 971 active single family homes available for sale and there were 217 single family houses sold in June 2010. The rate is 971/217 equalling 4 1/2 months. (I am NOT including condominiums and townhomes in my analysis as they constitute a different market than single family homes.)

An absorption ate of 4 1/2 months would be a huge improvement if it were county-wide. However, a quick look at two Marin towns will illustrate the disparity in our market.

Novato has 167 active single family homes and sold 49 in June. The absorption rate is 3 1/2 months. As the number of months in the absorption rate decreases the closer that market is to stabilzating and potentially becoming a “sellers’ market”. 3 1/2 months is a solid indication that Novato’s real estate market is stabilizing.

Now let’s look at the opposite end of the spectrum in Belvedere. Belvedere has 37 homes for sale and had 4 sales in June. That translates to 9 1/4 months for absorption. Quite a different story than Novato’s and one that indicates continuing price reductions for Belvedere.

Here is the breakdown of units sold and average square foot prices for the ENTIRE county:

June 2009 186 sales with an average square foot price of $478.46

May 2010 190 sales with average square foot price of $495.13

June 2010 217 sales with an average square foot price of $474.86

To buyers this a tough market but one with trremendous opportunities - soft prices, abundant inventory and historically low 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates.

For sellers this is a hellish market. Buyers are extremely tough in their negotiations and are prepared to walk away from the transaction without getting certain seller concessions regarding inspection findings, possible undervalued appraisal, etc.

As they say - no pain, no gain. There will be continued pain in the market but, hopefully, with the understanding that the pain is necesary for us to attain the market stabilization we so desperately need.

Good News for May 2010

Lou — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 18:25:34 +0000

May 2010 proved to be a big boost for Marin real estate sales. There were gains in both units sold and in the price per square foot over May 2009.

As usual I must qualify the following information by saying that each town and each neighborhood within that town has a very specific performance statistics. The following infomation in County-wide. Feel free to contact me for information specific to your property.

UNITS SOLD:	May-09	May-10	% Change

up to $1,00,000	109	129	18% up

$1,000,001 - $2M	30	38	27% up

$2,000,001 - $3M	6	12	50% up

$3,000,001 and up	2	10	500% up


Square Foot Price:	May-09	May-10	% Change

up to $1,00,000	$360.05	$389	8% up

$1,000,001 - $2M	$500.50	$509.66	18% up

$2,000,001 - $3M	$766.59	$740.44	3.5% down

$3,000,001 and up	$578.47	$843.18	46% up

Marin County Sales Comparisons April 2009 vs April 2010

Lou — Mon, 03 May 2010 22:08:59 +0000

Below are the sales and square foot prices Countywide.

If you would like this information for your town feel

free to contact me and I’ll email you the information.

April 2009 April 2010 % Change

Single Family Homes 107 Sold 156 Sold 46% increase

SFD aver. sq ft price $468.51 $496.57 6% increase

Condominiums 38 Sold 41 Sold 8% increase

Condo aver. sq ft price $283.58 $271.66 4.3% decrease

Square Foot Prices Y/E 2009 vs 1st Quarter 2010

Lou — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 18:41:20 +0000

Marin County Single Family Sales

2009 Year End Square Foot Prices

vs.

January 1 thru March 31, 2010

Square Foot Prices

TOWN	2009 Year End	Jan 1 - Mar 31, 2010	% Change


Belvedere	928.83	818.12	-12.00%
Corte Madera	538.17	453.18	-15.8
Fairfax	403.26	377.73	-6.4
Greenbrae	508.36	543.33	+6.9
Kentfield	693.26	546.12	-21.3
Larkspur	562.95	614.22	+9.1
Mill Valley	549.5	571.17	+3.9
Novato	298.68	285.06	-4.6
Ross	748.71	682.21	-8.9
San Anselmo	479.97	397.96	-17.1
San Rafael	395.13	376.37	-4.8
Sausalito	615.16	585.02	-4.9
Tiburon	719.88	709.09	-1.5

All Marin County	489.45	454.42	-7.2

Marin County Sales January 2010 - All SFD & Condo/Townhomes (courtesy DQ News)

Lou — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 22:53:37 +0000

Community	Zip	Sales	Median Price	% Chg	High Price	$/SqFt	% Chg*
Marin County
Belvedere - Tib	94920	12	$1,277,500	-41.3%	$3,425,000	$517	-52.6%
Corte Madera	94925	2	$707,750	-18.7%	$860,000	$435	-17.2%
Fairfax	94930	3	$777,000	81.8%	$1,329,000	$377	-0.7%
Greenbrae	94904	11	$1,215,000	37.4%	$8,000,000	$583	21.5%
Inverness	94937	1	$530,000	n/a	$530,000	$339	n/a
Larkspur	94939	2	$801,500	186.8%	$975,000	$618	21.2%
Mill Valley	94941	18	$1,005,000	28.4%	$2,075,000	$573	-5.5%
Novato	94945	12	$450,250	-28.5%	$900,000	$303	46.4%
Novato	94947	24	$399,000	10.8%	$520,000	$297	-11.5%
Novato	94949	10	$550,000	29.9%	$1,150,000	$285	11.8%
Ross	94957	1	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
San Anselmo	94960	9	$795,000	-7.6%	$1,277,000	$396	-28.1%
San Rafael	94901	13	$620,000	156.7%	$1,500,000	$327	-8.3%
San Rafael	94903	27	$328,000	-37.5%	$800,100	$392	19.4%
Sausalito	94965	3	$412,500	-16.2%	$640,000	$526	5.3%

* % Change from Last Year

Housing Inventory vs Sales

Lou — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 23:28:31 +0000

Here’s a snapshot of Marin’s housing inventory in relation to the previous month’s sales. This allows us a snapshot of the absorption time or the time it will take to sell current inventory at the last month’s sales pace.

Town	Current	# Sold in	# of Months
	Inventory	January ‘10	of Inventory

Belvedere	21	1	21
Corte Madera	13	1	13
Fairfax	9	3	3
Greenbrae	10	2	5
Kentfield	16	4	4
Larkspur	14	2	7
Mill Valley	66	16	4
Novato	101	25	4
Ross	14	2	7
San Anselmo	24	7	3.5
San Rafael	96	22	44
Sausalito	28	1	28
Tiburon	41	2	20.5

2009 Marin County Single Family Home Sales

Lou — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 19:36:22 +0000

	# Single Family	Average List	Average Sold	Average Square
	Homes Sold	Price	Price	Foot Price
All of Marin County	1,659	$1,049,202	$996,524	$489.45

Town by Town:
Belvedere	23	3,575,636	3,165,455	928.83
Corte Madera	69	1,033,738	996,160	538.17
Fairfax	64	708,478	687,566	403.26
Greenbrae	43	1,145,495	1,116,351	508.36
Kentfield	38	2,102,943	2,001,442	693.26
Larkspur	48	1,213,507	1,157,416	562.95
Mill Valley	229	1,250,706	1,181,971	549.5
Novato	424	655,858	637,278	296.68
Ross	35	2,359,516	2,245,380	748.71
San Anselmo	129	907,353	868,874	479.77
San Rafael	388	816,039	785,513	395.13
Sausalito	38	1,288,518	1,238,924	615.16
Stinson	11	1,607,857	1,433,464	821.94
Tiburon	67	2,458,018	2,229,467	719.88

Marin October ‘09 Condo & Townhome Sales Volume & Square Foot Price

Lou — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:17:17 +0000

TOWN	# of ACTIVE	# of SOLD	AVERAGE	AVERAGE
	PROPERTIES	PROPERTIES	Sq Ft Price of	Sq Ft Price of
	as of 10/31/09	during October	Sold Properties	Active Properties

Corte Madera	7	4	$402.81	425.67
Fairfax	3	0		378.57
Greenbrae	15	4	370.6	404.24
Larkspur	5	0		458.35
Mill Valley	16	4	402.4	565.02
Novato	26	22	245.17	249.85
San Anselmo	3	1	365.61	407.3
San Rafael	6	13	268.22	371.2
Sausalito	12	3	469.05	554.65
Tiburon	16	2	544.63	682.44

Marin County October ‘09 Single Family Home Sales Volume & Square Foot Price

Lou — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:50:49 +0000

TOWN	# of ACTIVE	# of SOLD	AVERAGE	AVERAGE
	PROPERTIES	PROPERTIES	Sq Ft Price of	Sq Ft Price of
	as of 10/31/09	during October	Sold Properties	Active Properties

Belvedere	33	2	$741.86	$1,210.55
Corte Madera	14	4	$527.78	545.64
Fairfax	25	7	408.33	426.38
Greenbrae	19	3	480.74	603.37
Kentfield	23	4	577.18	765.18
Larkspur	21	3	554.44	600.36
Mill Valley	108	20	558.15	655.84
Novato	120	50	298.76	348.19
Ross	20	2	991.9	950.59
San Anselmo	59	8	427.85	521.46
SG Valley	13	1	197.37	380.47
San Rafael	138	43	405.87	428.78
Sausalito	41	4	716.8	820.82
Tiburon	62	6	883.99	1,017.95

What Area Is Best Poised For Real Estate Recovery? The Bay Area!

Lou — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:50:46 +0000

Check out what CNN has to say:

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/real_estate/0910/gallery.housing_price_forecast/index.html