Marin Real Estate

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Escrow

Here is an interesting example of how differently today’s real estate market is perceived. In evcery sale/purchase the cast includes the home buyers, home sellers, agents in the transaction and the neighbors.

1) Any agent worth his weight in salt knows that pricing is the key component to successfully market and sell a property in today’s real estate market. It is not easy to tell a person that their home is worth less today than when they bought it but unfortunately that comprises a lot of today’s market.

2) Most sellers refuse to believe the facts regarding home values. They are taken aback, if not downright offended, when you are honest enough to discuss the reality of today’s values/prices. Most would rather hear an unrealistic value and have deluded themselves enough to believe it. Here starts the failure of the sale - priced too high when it comes on the market, waits too long for the inevitable price reduction and starts “chasing the market” which always results in a lower sales price then had it been priced correctly in the beginning. Or, the sellers never reduce the price, the home remains on the market getting “stale” and the home never sells or does so at an extreme discount due to length of time of the market.

3)Today’s home buyers are the most sophisticated we’ve ever seen. They have access to massive amounts of real estate information. This group is fully aware of market conditions and unlike most sellers perception that today’s buyers are looking for a “steal”, buyers are actually looking for a fair deal in today’s market. When you offer them a fair deal they respond with more gusto then you would believe.

4) Then there are the neighbors of sellers who refuse to accept the fact that their homes are worth less today then than have been in the past 5 years. When an agent prices a home “fairly for this market” or when the ultimate selling price is announced the listing agent can expect lots of woe and grief from neighbors accusing the agent of “underpricing the home” and “destroying our values”. Unfortunately these people are either deluded or completely unaware of the facts, figures and reality of today’s market.

Those are the main players in this tragi-comedy called our real estate market. A cast that makes for some very interesting times indeed.

Marin County September ‘09 Condo/Townhome Sales

TOWN # CURRENT # LISTINGS AVERAGE AVERAGE  ABSORB
ACTIVE SOLD IN  SQ FT LIST SQ FT SOLD RATE
LISTINGS SEPT. 09 PRICE PRICE
Belvedere 0 0  
Corte Madera 4 0 451.17   ~
Fairfax 2 0 386.3   ~
Greenbrae 13 2 437.52 379.15 6.5 Mths
Kentfield 0 0    
Larkspur 7 0 494.5   ~
Mill Valley 23 3 551.91 450.41 7.7 Mths
Novato 23 22 253.64 233.71 1 Mth
San Anselmo 6 1 439.84 364.66 6 Mths
S G Valley 0 0      
San Rafael 60 11 402.09 292.03 5.5 Mths
Sausalito 25 5 471.22 478.47 5 Mths
Stinson 2 1 524.74 515.81 2 Mths
Tiburon 22 2 651.87 496.22 11 Mths

Marin’s September 2009 Single Family Home Sales

TOWN # CURRENT # LISTINGS AVERAGE AVERAGE ABSORB
ACTIVE SOLD IN SQ FT LIST SQ FT SOLD RATE
LISTINGS SEPT. 09 PRICE PRICE
Belvedere 34 1 $1,610 804.22 34 Mths
Corte Madera 23 5 564.19 448.75 4.6 Mths
Fairfax 29 6 419.5 419.34 4.8 Mths
Greenbrae 19 4 564.13 547.53 4.75 Mths
Kentfield 29 5 753.95 771.7 5.8 Mths
Larkspur 23 6 611.29 551.72 3.8 Mths
Mill Valley 131 19 668.44 534.26 6.9 Mths
Novato 115 35 343.06 301.63 3.3 Mths
San Anselmo 64 5 523.96 414.26 12.8 Mths
S G Valley 12 2 416.58 341.16 6 Mths
San Rafael 162 30 423.14 396.31 5.4 Mths
Sausalito 50 6 848.28 706.35 8.3 Mths
Stinson 24 2 1,387.36 849.45 12 Mths
Tiburon 73 5 988.93 841.48 14.6 Mths

Marin’s August Single Family Sales Statistics Part 1

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

AUG 2009 AVERAGE

 LIST PRICE per SQ FT

AUG 2009 AVERAGE

SALES PRICE per SQ FT

AUG ‘08 AVERAGE SALES PRICE per SQ FT

% CHANGE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under $1 million

$423.19

$382.08

$449.53

-15%

 

 

 

 

 

$1m - $1,999,999

$550.40

$501.27

$635.89

-21.20%

 

 

 

 

 

$2m and Up

$1,077.82

$676.59

$857.63

-21.20%


Marin’s August Single Family Sales Statistics Part 2

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

# of ACTIVE LISTINGS

# of UNITS SOLD

in AUG ‘09

# of UNITS SOLD in AUG ‘08

%  CHANGE

 

 

 

 

 

Under $1 million

375

114

88

-22.90%

 

 

 

 

 

$1m - $1,999,999

271

41

51

-20%

 

 

 

 

 

$2m and Up

209

8

21

-62%

‘The Rise and Fall of Artificial Wealth’ - Well Worth Reading

The article, The Rise and Fall of Artificial Wealth, is one of the most detailed, yet easy to understand explanations of where the U.S. economy is, how it got here and where it’s going. Check it out:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-d-intriligator-and-r-kyle-martin/the-rise-and-fall-of-arti_b_261392.html

Marin Single Family Homes - Comparison of Square Foot Values June ‘09 vs July ‘09

Town

Average Sales Price

Average Square Feet

Average Square Foot Price

Belvedere June 2009

$1,727,500

1,909

$904.92

Belvedere July 2009

3,405,000

3,717

916.06

% Change

 

 

1.20%

 

 

 

 

Corte Madera June 2009

788,291

1,636

481.84

Corte Madera July 2009

948,547

1,646

576.27

% Change

 

 

19.60%

 

 

 

 

Fairax June 2009

677,389

1,679

403.48

Fairfax July 2009

737,000

1,456

506.18

% Change

 

 

25.40%

 

 

 

 

Greenbrae June 2009

1,154,167

2,290

504

Greenbrae July 2009

1,168,167

2,122

550.5

% Change

 

 

9.20%

 

 

 

 

Kentfield June 2009

1,590,000

2,543

625.25

Kentfield July 2009

2,212,500

3,085

717.18

% Change

 

 

14.70%

 

 

 

 

Larkspur June 2009

1,123,000

1,849

607.35

Larkspur July 2009

1,785,000

3,002

594.6

% Change

 

 

-2.10%

 

 

 

 

Mill Valley June 2009

1,492,778

2,485

600.72

Mill Valley June 2009

963,591

1,760

547.49

% Change

 

 

-8.90%

 

 

 

 

Novato June 2009

666,124

2,128

313.03

Novato July 2009

632,078

2,107

299.99

% Change

 

 

-4.20%

 

 

 

 

Ross June 2009

2,313,583

2,569

900.58

Ross July 2009

3,397,500

3,500

970.71

% Change

 

 

7.80%

 

 

 

 

San Anselmo June 2009

794,978

1,540

516.22

San Anselmo July 2009

997,859

1,907

523.26

% Change

 

 

1.40%

 

 

 

 

San Rafael June 2009

837,484

2,214

378.27

San Rafael July 2009

802,352

1,902

421.85

% Change

 

 

11.50%

 

 

 

 

Sausalito June 2009

922,000

2,171

424.69

Sausalito July 2009

936,000

1,805

518.56

% Change

 

 

22.10%

 

 

 

 

Stinson June 2009

no sales

no sales

no sales

Stinson July 2009

2,100,000

1,957

1,073.07

% Change

 

 

X

 

 

 

 

Tiburon June 2009

1,996,063

2,904

687.35

Tiburon July 2009

2,089,040

2,795

747.42

% Change

 

 

8.70%

 

Marin Single Family Homes - Comparison of Square Foot Values July ‘08 vs July ‘09

 

 

 

 

Town

Average Sales Price

Average Square Feet

Average Square Foot Price

Belvedere July ‘08

$6,485,000

Vacant Land

X  

Belvedere July ‘09

3,405,000

3,717

916.06

% Change

 

 

X

 

 

 

 

Corte Madera July ‘09

1,231,083

1,904

646.57

Corte Madera July ‘09

948,547

1,646

576.27

% Change

 

 

 -11%

 

 

 

 

Fairax July ‘08

754,030

1,749

431.12

Fairfax July 09

737,000

1,456

506.18

% Change

 

 

 17.4%

 

 

 

 

Greenbrae July ‘08

1,367,879

2,499

547.37

Greenbrae July ‘09

1,168,167

2,122

550.5

% Change

 

 

Flat

 

 

 

 

Kentfield July ‘08

2,305,000

2,866

804.26

Kentfield July ‘09

2,212,500

3,085

717.18

% Change

 

 

-11%

 

 

 

 

Larkspur July ‘08

1,656,750

2,183

758.93

Larkspur July ‘09

1,785,000

3,002

594.6

% Change

 

 

 -21.7%

 

 

 

 

Mill Valley July ‘08

1,679,445

2,318

724.52

Mill Valley June ‘09

963,591

1,760

547.49

% Change

 

 

 -24.5%

 

 

 

 

Novato July ‘08

769,985

2,171

354.67

Novato July ‘09

632,078

2,107

299.99

% Change

 

 

-15.5%

 

 

 

 

Ross July ‘08

 2,025,000

2,371

854.07

Ross July ‘09

3,397,500

3,500

970.71

% Change

 

 

 13.6%

 

 

 

 

San Anselmo July ‘08

1,369,429

2,122

645.34

San Anselmo July ‘09

997,859

1,907

523.26

% Change

 

 

 -19%

 

 

 

 

San Rafael July ‘08

965,795

1,986

486.3

San Rafael July ‘09

802,352

1,902

421.85

% Change

 

 

 -13.3%

 

 

 

 

Sausalito July ‘08

1,271,250

1,755

724.36

Sausalito July ‘09

936,000

1,805

518.56

% Change

 

 

 -28.5%

 

 

 

 

Stinson July ‘08

3,374,750

2,105

1,603.21

Stinson July ‘09

2,100,000

1,957

1,073.07

% Change

 

 

 -33%

 

 

 

 

Tiburon July ‘08

2,385,000

2,579

924.77

Tiburon Jun ‘09

2,089,040

2,795

747.42

% Change

 

 

 -19.2%

 

June Bay Area Home Sales & Median Price from DQNews

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090716.aspx

Banks Ramp Up Foreclosures

Once again our banks are working against providing any assistance to homeowners whether it be in the form of loan modifcation or short sales. They simply refuse to comply. Check out this NY Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/11/business/11nocera.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

It seems to me that a strongly monitored system of reward or penalty must be defined and implemented. The banks should be rewarded or penalized based on their perfomance with distressed homeowners/borrowers. It seems the only action they are committed to is foreclosure. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=afOsHVj02UMc

The behavior of our banking system is appalling and, at this point, un-American. Uh-oh! Un-American is a mighty strong statement. Indeed it is. The banks are holding our economy hostage and the ransom they are demanding and receiving is crippling our economy with repercussions we will feel for many years to come.

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