Archive for January, 2009

Think of it as Tough Love

Hey Credit Card Companies, Ever Hear of the Golden Goose?

Everybody wants to buy and spend, agreed? We now know that unbridled greed got us into the shape we’re currently in, agreed? Then why, I ask, isn’t anything being done to address the next ticking bomb - credit card debt? Everyday we hear of credit card companies jacking the rates on unsuspecting credit card holders. Undeservedly in most cases. 29-38%?!  Has anyone ever heard of usury? Or has that word disappeared from our vocabulary along with monopoly? We are talking about another government-sanctioned rip-off of the public…another crime of unbridled greed pounding us into the ground, killing our economy and ruining untold lives. Did we overspend? undoubtedly! Did we live beyond our means in some cases? of course! We’re Americans and we’re addicted to buying and spending. What’s more we still want to. Here’s the key - the government must make it possible. Why? Because it’s the only way to save our economy. How else do they expect to save an economy that for years has been driven by consumer spending? Let us spend!  How? Immediately lower all credit card rates on outstanding balances and all new purchases to 1-2%. Yeah! Use some of that bailout money to supplement the rate if necessary. Shouldn’t the cc companies be happy with a 1-2% return? What rate do you get when lending your money to banks (savings accounts, etc)?

Imagine how freed up people would feel. They’d be paying down their existing debt and not afraid of adding new debt via buying and spending. We’d get the wheels cranking again. We’d get people back in stores. We’d create jobs. It’s a patriotic call to duty. The credit card companies must get real and stop the greed, lower the rates and open the gates of consumerism once more.

Marin County Real Estate Sales 2008 vs 2007

“You couldn’t have anybody better in charge”

Yesterday’s inauguration of Barack Obama brought joy and tears to many and the start of a new era in America. But Obama also reminded us during his speech that we face extreme challenges. Perhaps Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor, said it best when he told Dateline NBC Sunday that the US is in “economic Pearl Harbor”. Buffett pointed out that it is really fear that is our main enemy. (Isn’t that always the case?) When the interviewer turned the questioning toward Obama Buffett said, “You couldn’t have anybody better in charge.”
Meanwhile, the stock market plunged lower yesterday as the inauguration took place, with the DOW index finally settling below 8000 at close. As I write this today, Timothy Geithner, Obama’s pick for Treasury Secretary, is appearing before Congress as part of his nomination process. Geithner intends to refocus the existing TARP funds and to expand the program to ensure that relief is felt directly by homeowners and small businesses. This will most likely take the form of additional conditions placed on lenders who received these funds. Seems fair to me… sort of like the way your credit cards suddenly have new conditions (and higher interest rates!) placed on them after you’ve been a card holder for years.
New regulations to watch for…The $7500 tax credit for first time home buyers who buy now will become permanent, instead of having to be paid back eventually. Bankruptcy judges may be given the legal right to modify mortgages on principle residences too, and even to reduce the amount owed. Banking and finance regulations, and SEC regulations will also be a focus, especially as more evidence of investment schemes like Madoff’s grows. One thing is sure. The current market has destroyed investor confidence, and this must be changed.
What’s in store for you and your clients? I expect there will be additional stimulus measures passed in the near future designed to stop foreclosures and help homeowners afford their monthly payments. This, together with measures to restore investor confidence, should allow the secondary mortgage market to begin functioning again. Once this occurs, the $7500 tax break for first time home buyers, together with low interest rates, should increase home sales volume and return the real estate market to stability. 

The Bailout & The Arrogance of the Banks

Wow! the arrogance involved in the bailout is overwhelming. Reading this article  is enough to anger even the most mild-mannered. While reading it think back to Paulson and all those anguished politicians pleading with the American public, swearing that the bailout was our only hope. Well here we are, screwed again.

Is Loan Modification Right For You?

Now the REAL Bad News

Amidst all the financial and economic turmoil we now get some really bad news.

Bruised in 2008; Hope for 2009!

Happy New Year! After a bruising 2008 I think we can all agree that it’s great to have last year behind us. The market opened the year on January 2nd with upward movement for all major indexes, a good sign. Some financial analysts believe that market performance on the opening day of the year signals a trend for the entire year. While I’d like to be optimistic, this week’s market has been down each day so far… so I’m not breaking open the champagne just yet. This said, it won’t surprise me if the economy begins to turn around mid 2009.

Congress went back into session this week and is already working on a huge stimulus bill that is destined for Obama’s desk right after he takes office on January 20th. In fact, both he and the Bush administration have asked for the remaining funds from the last stimulus package (TARP passed in the fall of 2008) to be released now. Everyone seems to agree that the economy needs all the help it can get now. Hopefully the money will be well spent!

TARP funds that have already been distributed to major banks are having a little effect on the credit freeze that continues to plague home and business owners. One effect we’re seeing is that conforming mortgage rates have gone down to the low 5% range for 30 year fixed rate loans, while “agency jumbo” loans ($417,001 to $625,500) still have higher rates. But this may change more dramatically also because I’ve recently seen reports that indicate the federal government is applying pressure to these financial institutions to use the funds to modify existing mortgages and to refinance existing loans into lower rates.

Loan modifications are becoming a hot topic. Unfortunately, lenders still seem stalled when it comes to actually modifying troubled mortgages. FDIC programs for banks they’ve taken over (like Indy Mac) are not offering permanent
rate reductions. Non-profit and government modifications still don’t seem to be getting loans modified in ways that offer permanent, sustainable alterations to loan terms. The law firm I’ve been referring clients to for loan modifications
seems to be having excellent success in getting loans modified… and doesn’t charge huge up front fees. So there are some modification companies that are fine to work with. Just be careful and ask lots of questions. As 2009 opens I remain hopeful that this year will be a good one!

Marin Musings–January 12, 2009

The sun came out Thursday afternoon after a gray week for us here, and we were blessed with a glorious weekend: sunny, clear and mild.” It’s hard to believe it is January.” Lou and I took our little car out to the Pt. Bonita Lighthouse on the Marin Headlands…the view is so gorgeous out there!” I love the sense of being at the very edge of the continent…

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See below for high & low tides this week:

DAY TIME HEIGHT*

Tuesday Jan. 13

1:34 AM 5.6 feet

6:34 AM 2.2 feet

12:35 PM 6.4 feet

7:09 PM -0.8 feet

Wednesday Jan. 14

2:14 AM 5.7 feet

7:32 AM 2 feet

1:30 PM 5.8 feet

7:51 PM -0.2 feet

Thursday Jan. 15

2:54 AM 5.8 feet

8:35 AM 1.8 feet

2:29 PM 5.1 feet

8:34 PM 0.6 feet

*” Measured from National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration’s Mean Lower Low Water mark (MLLW).” Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) is 5.8 feet.

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Although winter officially started less than a month ago, a few crazy plum and magnolia trees are starting to bloom around central Marin.” The hills are green and the deer finally have plenty to eat, the robins have arrived, and the red-tailed hawks are filling the sky with their cries.” Each day gets a little longer…you can’t miss the signs that spring will be with us soon.”

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Hate to see Redwood High School divided over adoption of the International Baccalaureate Program.” We found Redwood to be such a great school, with committed and happy teachers and a calm and competent administration.” Hope things can be worked out amicably…

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Healing prayers/Positive energy/Good karma to:

Janice H., John, Janice L. Stephanie…

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See you next time…

What’s Happening in the Market? (video blog)

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